A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
